Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

ASSAM, 1962–2019. 14 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
62.5
2019 · 5 of 8
Incumbents contesting
57.14
8 of 14 seats
First-time winners
64.29
9 new faces
Turncoats
3
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+24.04pp
From 38.46% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    62.5%
  2. 2014
    38.46%
  3. 2009
    54.55%
  4. 2004
    58.33%
  5. 1999
    78.57%
  6. 1998
    27.27%
  7. 1996
    61.54%
  8. 1991
    0.0%
  9. 1985
    33.33%
  10. 1980
    50.0%
  11. 1977
    50.0%
  12. 1971
    72.73%
  13. 1967
    100.0%
  14. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    64.29%
  2. 2014
    28.57%
  3. 2009
    21.43%
  4. 2004
    21.43%
  5. 1999
    7.14%
  6. 1998
    35.71%
  7. 1996
    21.43%
  8. 1991
    64.29%
  9. 1985
    71.43%
  10. 1980
    50.0%
  11. 1977
    64.29%
  12. 1971
    42.86%
  13. 1967
    42.86%
  14. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 3 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 8 turncoats4 won (50.0%)
2009 4 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2004 3 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1999 5 turncoats2 won (40.0%)
1998 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1996 7 turncoats1 won (14.29%)
1991 5 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1985 6 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1977 3 turncoats2 won (66.67%)
1971 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1967 2 turncoats1 won (50.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 8 contesting5 won · 62.5% strike rate
2014 13 contesting5 won · 38.46% strike rate
2009 11 contesting6 won · 54.55% strike rate
2004 12 contesting7 won · 58.33% strike rate
1999 14 contesting11 won · 78.57% strike rate
1998 11 contesting3 won · 27.27% strike rate
1996 13 contesting8 won · 61.54% strike rate
1985 3 contesting1 won · 33.33% strike rate
1980 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
1977 6 contesting3 won · 50.0% strike rate
1971 11 contesting8 won · 72.73% strike rate
1967 8 contesting8 won · 100.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 62.5% is above the historical average of 49.1%.

    62.5% vs avg 49.1%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1991 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1991 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1967 with a 100.0% re-election rate (8 of 8).

    Highest: 1967 at 100.0%

  4. 9 winners in 2019 (64.29%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    9 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 2014 with 8 turncoats, of whom 4 won (50.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 8 turncoats in 2014
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