Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

WEST BENGAL, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
60.61
2019 · 20 of 33
Incumbents contesting
78.57
33 of 42 seats
First-time winners
38.1
16 new faces
Turncoats
19
5 won · strike rate 26.32%
Vs previous
+7.67pp
From 52.94% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    60.61%
  2. 2014
    52.94%
  3. 2009
    42.86%
  4. 2004
    67.5%
  5. 1999
    89.74%
  6. 1998
    83.33%
  7. 1996
    82.35%
  8. 1991
    95.0%
  9. 1989
    69.7%
  10. 1984
    72.22%
  11. 1980
    56.25%
  12. 1977
    53.12%
  13. 1971
    68.42%
  14. 1967
    60.0%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    38.1%
  2. 2014
    54.76%
  3. 2009
    50.0%
  4. 2004
    21.43%
  5. 1999
    4.76%
  6. 1998
    21.43%
  7. 1996
    26.19%
  8. 1991
    4.76%
  9. 1989
    38.1%
  10. 1984
    23.81%
  11. 1980
    40.48%
  12. 1977
    42.86%
  13. 1971
    47.5%
  14. 1967
    62.5%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 19 turncoats5 won (26.32%)
2014 19 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
2004 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1999 25 turncoats8 won (32.0%)
1998 13 turncoats4 won (30.77%)
1996 6 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1991 10 turncoats1 won (10.0%)
1989 6 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1984 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
1980 16 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1977 5 turncoats4 won (80.0%)
1971 15 turncoats6 won (40.0%)
1967 3 turncoats2 won (66.67%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 33 contesting20 won · 60.61% strike rate
2014 34 contesting18 won · 52.94% strike rate
2009 28 contesting12 won · 42.86% strike rate
2004 40 contesting27 won · 67.5% strike rate
1999 39 contesting35 won · 89.74% strike rate
1998 36 contesting30 won · 83.33% strike rate
1996 34 contesting28 won · 82.35% strike rate
1991 40 contesting38 won · 95.0% strike rate
1989 33 contesting23 won · 69.7% strike rate
1984 36 contesting26 won · 72.22% strike rate
1980 32 contesting18 won · 56.25% strike rate
1977 32 contesting17 won · 53.12% strike rate
1971 19 contesting13 won · 68.42% strike rate
1967 20 contesting12 won · 60.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 60.61% is below the historical average of 63.6%.

    60.61% vs avg 63.6%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1991 with a 95.0% re-election rate (38 of 40).

    Highest: 1991 at 95.0%

  4. 16 winners in 2019 (38.1%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    16 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1999 with 25 turncoats, of whom 8 won (32.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 25 turncoats in 1999
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