Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

ODISHA, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
42.86
2019 · 3 of 7
Incumbents contesting
33.33
7 of 21 seats
First-time winners
66.67
14 new faces
Turncoats
10
1 won · strike rate 10.0%
Vs previous
-7.14pp
From 50.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    42.86%
  2. 2014
    50.0%
  3. 2009
    31.25%
  4. 2004
    84.62%
  5. 1999
    77.78%
  6. 1998
    23.53%
  7. 1996
    68.75%
  8. 1991
    52.63%
  9. 1989
    20.0%
  10. 1984
    92.86%
  11. 1980
    31.25%
  12. 1977
    37.5%
  13. 1971
    33.33%
  14. 1967
    83.33%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    66.67%
  2. 2014
    52.38%
  3. 2009
    38.1%
  4. 2004
    19.05%
  5. 1999
    9.52%
  6. 1998
    9.52%
  7. 1996
    33.33%
  8. 1991
    23.81%
  9. 1989
    38.1%
  10. 1984
    38.1%
  11. 1980
    47.62%
  12. 1977
    38.1%
  13. 1971
    70.0%
  14. 1967
    65.0%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 10 turncoats1 won (10.0%)
2014 14 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 9 turncoats3 won (33.33%)
2004 7 turncoats3 won (42.86%)
1999 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1998 15 turncoats7 won (46.67%)
1996 9 turncoats3 won (33.33%)
1991 13 turncoats3 won (23.08%)
1989 14 turncoats8 won (57.14%)
1984 5 turncoats1 won (20.0%)
1980 16 turncoats1 won (6.25%)
1977 13 turncoats9 won (69.23%)
1971 8 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1967 4 turncoats3 won (75.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 7 contesting3 won · 42.86% strike rate
2014 16 contesting8 won · 50.0% strike rate
2009 16 contesting5 won · 31.25% strike rate
2004 13 contesting11 won · 84.62% strike rate
1999 18 contesting14 won · 77.78% strike rate
1998 17 contesting4 won · 23.53% strike rate
1996 16 contesting11 won · 68.75% strike rate
1991 19 contesting10 won · 52.63% strike rate
1989 15 contesting3 won · 20.0% strike rate
1984 14 contesting13 won · 92.86% strike rate
1980 16 contesting5 won · 31.25% strike rate
1977 16 contesting6 won · 37.5% strike rate
1971 15 contesting5 won · 33.33% strike rate
1967 6 contesting5 won · 83.33% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 42.86% is below the historical average of 48.6%.

    42.86% vs avg 48.6%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1984 with a 92.86% re-election rate (13 of 14).

    Highest: 1984 at 92.86%

  4. 14 winners in 2019 (66.67%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    14 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 16 turncoats, of whom 1 won (6.25% strike rate).

    Peak: 16 turncoats in 1980
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