Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

MADHYA PRADESH, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
78.57
2019 · 11 of 14
Incumbents contesting
48.28
14 of 29 seats
First-time winners
58.62
17 new faces
Turncoats
9
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+25.63pp
From 52.94% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    78.57%
  2. 2014
    52.94%
  3. 2009
    52.63%
  4. 2004
    80.95%
  5. 1999
    77.42%
  6. 1998
    66.67%
  7. 1996
    58.62%
  8. 1991
    54.55%
  9. 1989
    25.0%
  10. 1984
    86.96%
  11. 1980
    15.62%
  12. 1977
    32.0%
  13. 1971
    73.91%
  14. 1967
    52.94%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    58.62%
  2. 2014
    44.83%
  3. 2009
    44.83%
  4. 2004
    20.69%
  5. 1999
    22.5%
  6. 1998
    20.0%
  7. 1996
    37.5%
  8. 1991
    30.0%
  9. 1989
    27.5%
  10. 1984
    45.0%
  11. 1980
    57.5%
  12. 1977
    70.0%
  13. 1971
    43.24%
  14. 1967
    70.27%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 9 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 11 turncoats3 won (27.27%)
2009 12 turncoats1 won (8.33%)
2004 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
1999 10 turncoats1 won (10.0%)
1998 15 turncoats2 won (13.33%)
1996 12 turncoats2 won (16.67%)
1991 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1989 11 turncoats8 won (72.73%)
1984 19 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 34 turncoats3 won (8.82%)
1977 11 turncoats10 won (90.91%)
1971 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1967 3 turncoats2 won (66.67%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 14 contesting11 won · 78.57% strike rate
2014 17 contesting9 won · 52.94% strike rate
2009 19 contesting10 won · 52.63% strike rate
2004 21 contesting17 won · 80.95% strike rate
1999 31 contesting24 won · 77.42% strike rate
1998 36 contesting24 won · 66.67% strike rate
1996 29 contesting17 won · 58.62% strike rate
1991 33 contesting18 won · 54.55% strike rate
1989 32 contesting8 won · 25.0% strike rate
1984 23 contesting20 won · 86.96% strike rate
1980 32 contesting5 won · 15.62% strike rate
1977 25 contesting8 won · 32.0% strike rate
1971 23 contesting17 won · 73.91% strike rate
1967 17 contesting9 won · 52.94% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 78.57% is above the historical average of 53.9%.

    78.57% vs avg 53.9%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1984 with a 86.96% re-election rate (20 of 23).

    Highest: 1984 at 86.96%

  4. 17 winners in 2019 (58.62%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    17 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 34 turncoats, of whom 3 won (8.82% strike rate).

    Peak: 34 turncoats in 1980
An unhandled error has occurred. Reload